Well, that escalated quickly

"ttyymmnn" (ttyymmnn) 03/13/2020 at 10:17 • Filed to: None

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The city of Austin !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! it’s first two confirmed cases of covid-19 (neither of which are community transfer) and the Austin school district and UT-Austin immediately shut down today. We are in the Round Rock school district immediately to the north, but our schools are open for business, although the district told parents that if they want to keep their kids home they would not be counted absent. Spring break is next week, and UT has already extended it by a week and students will return to online classrooms. I am almost certain that our schools will extend break for a week. Fortunately, we are in a position where that won’t be much of a burden. I know there are a lot of families, though, who will be in a world of hurt.

I’m already sick of this bullshit.

Also, good morning. 

CalzoneGolem > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 10:24

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Buckle up buttercup this is just getting started.

Ash78, voting early and often > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 10:26

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I hate the hysteria. Alabama is one of just 4 states with no cases yet, but you’d never know it from the lack of toilet paper and the empty stores (non-grocery).

Wash hands. Don’t touch face. Don’t shake hands. If you’re coughing at all, stay away from others. That’s probably 95% of it.

I was just reading an article about the value of early prevention vs reactionary prevention, and it’s a tangible difference. But those epidemiology models don’t always include people actually taking preventive steps — since historically people didn’t always take warnings seriously, or were often unaware of the spread until much too late.

The warm weather will allegedly slow it down a bit. HOORAY FOR CLIMATE CHANGE I guess.

vondon302 > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 10:30

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  Michigan went coo coo Thursday. Schools closed for 3 weeks state wide and people aren’t handling it well. I’m to the point I almost want to catch it and get it over with.

Hey I've got a sister in Round Rock. Small world. 

Chariotoflove > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 10:30

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Dallas declared a state of emergency yesterday. And one of our cases was apparently community transfer. No gatherings of more than 500 are allowed, including church gatherings. So pray at home.

WilliamsSW > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 10:31

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Yeah I’m just waiting for that to roll on to us.

Yesterday they shut down the local high school district because a student had to get tested.  Test was negative and they’re back in school today.  The policy seems to be that they’re waiting for 1 staff member or student to get it, then they’ll shut it all down.  Which doesn’t quite make sense to me.

shop-teacher > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 10:31

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Our district called an emergency late start this morning, so we could train and prepare for e-learning days.  We don’t have any confirmation if/when that will actually happen, but I will be shocked if we’re in school on Monday.

ttyymmnn > Chariotoflove 03/13/2020 at 10:33

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Austin declared last week to help out SXSW, and recently extended it indefinitely. Not really sure what that means. I guess one positive is that spring break is hitting at exactly the right time. Or, exactly the wrong time. Lots of travel involved. 

shop-teacher > WilliamsSW 03/13/2020 at 10:33

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I’ll be shocked if I’m in school on Monday.  Our district called an emergency late start this morning to train/prepare for e-learning.  No official word on if/when that will actually happen, but the powers that be are talking like this is the last day we’ll be in the building for a while.

ttyymmnn > WilliamsSW 03/13/2020 at 10:34

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That’s idiotic. You’re either going to be proactive or not proactive. To wait until somebody actually gets sick is pretty stupid.

Galileo Humpkins (aka MC Clap Yo Handz) > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 10:34

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On the one hand, I get that schools shutting down or extending breaks and moving online only (particularly K-12) can create a lot of issues re:childcare for working parents. On the other, shutting down temporarily is the thing to do, and businesses need to appreciate the special circumstances of the situation in which we now find ourselves. I know the bottom line is almost always the driving factor for businesses/companies when making decisions, but maybe, in these extreme circumstances, they can act with some compassion.

Schools here in Chicago (and most others) are extending spring breaks, then moving to online only (including the one at which I work). Thing is, staff is expected to work as normal. That’s not cool by any means. If our school, and others, had been better prepared, the move to online only would’ve been so much smoother, and we could all self-quarantine at home for the sake of safety, while still getting work done. Something, something, greater good.

WilliamsSW > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 10:35

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That’s kind of my take, too. 

Nothing > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 10:36

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Ours announced extended spring break at 9:30 PM last night. School today, off until the end of the month.

WilliamsSW > shop-teacher 03/13/2020 at 10:36

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I wonder if today won’t be the last day for a lot of Chicago area schools for a while.  We didn’t send our son today, although that was for unrelated reasons.  He was disappointed to not go.  

3point8isgreat > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 10:37

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Our city symphony is going forward with the concerts this weekend (for now).  Seems like a bad idea given the normal demographics of a symphony concert.

dtg11 - is probably on an adventure with Clifford > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 10:39

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pretty much. My college just announced we’ll be online the week after spring break. With a case 30 minutes away, it’s probably online for good, and that really sucks. If I wanted online classes, I’d take online classes. For people my age, the chance of dying from the virus is 1 in 45 million. I’m willing to take my chances and actually be able to learn and socialize.

jimz > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 10:39

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Americans are- for some reason- stupidly against prevention. They’re perfectly happy to do nothing until it becomes a huge problem and is too late to do anything about. because I’m a glutton for punishment I’m in an argument elsewhere with one of those types. He’s like “you’d think with all of this over-reaction there would be bodies in the streets and mass graves.”

as if we aren’t supposed to do anything until we get to that point. 

shop-teacher > WilliamsSW 03/13/2020 at 10:39

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It may well be. We had to finish our e-learning plan and get it approved by the state before we could close and not have to make it up at the end of the year.

My daughters will both be upset to miss school.

wafflesnfalafel > CalzoneGolem 03/13/2020 at 10:40

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I t’s good folks are jumping on it sooner now that we know about it - that extra week to 10 days of plan/action time could make a significant difference for communities that weren’t part of the initial hit. My wife is super p!ssed, big trip to see family back in Detroit just got canceled - she’d been planning and looking forward to it for months...  I’m kinda waiting to see what the next round of hording will entail as it sinks in that this isn’t just going away in a couple weeks.  

jimz > Ash78, voting early and often 03/13/2020 at 10:40

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“reactionary” isn’t prevention,  if you wait until you have to react, it’s too late. 

Chariotoflove > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 10:41

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Break is allowing schools a little breather to figure out what to do. We are already moving to a mostly online curriculum after break is over for the rest of the semester.

I’m glad we’re all taking it seriously so that it doesn’t become a disaster like Italy (in the worst case), but I do have the sour taste of disappointment at the slight tone of panic that laced all the announced preparations in some instances. 

Textured Soy Protein > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 10:42

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For big events like SXSW, if they cancel after an emergency declaration, that helps them greatly when filing insurance claims for lost revenue. 

jimz > wafflesnfalafel 03/13/2020 at 10:42

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sucks, but SE Michigan went from 2 to 12 confirmed cases overnight. we got sent to work from home today as a “test” to make sure the remote infrastructure couldn’t handle it, and 3 hrs into the work day the CEO announced that all groups who can  work remotely are to do so until further notice.

ttyymmnn > 3point8isgreat 03/13/2020 at 10:43

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Austin has banned gatherings of 2,500 or more, and the hall where ASO and the Opera perform holds a bit more than 2,400. ASO doesn’t get back together until the week of March 30, and opera is two weeks after that. So we’re all in a wait and see situation. This hit at just the right time for those two organizations. ASO will probably be okay if we have to cancel a sub concert, but this would be the third show of a season of three for the opera, and the one that is always our biggest seller. If that gets canceled, it could be devastating to the company. Fingers crossed. 

Ash78, voting early and often > jimz 03/13/2020 at 10:45

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Let’s redefine it a bit. Early prevention would be like “We all wash our hands properly” even despite any obvious threat. I’m calling the next phase reactionary because we waited for a threat. And we waited a little too long, most likely.

AestheticsInMotion > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 10:46

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All k-12 shutdown for a minimum of 35 days in Washington State as of this morning. Likely longer.

It's going to be interesting seeing how this plays out. Will the seniors even graduate? And if so, what will this do for their college application hopes? Will this be made up with a non-existant summer break? Will CV be gone (or hell, less of a threat) come fall..? 

jimz > Ash78, voting early and often 03/13/2020 at 10:48

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I’d submit that far too many of us still aren’t taking it seriously. 

ttyymmnn > AestheticsInMotion 03/13/2020 at 10:49

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All good questions that nobody has any answers for. 

WilliamsSW > jimz 03/13/2020 at 10:49

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I think all of what you said applies to people in general, but yeah.

The next moron that compares US flu deaths this winter to US CV deaths this winter (Thanks Fox News assholes) I may just punch in the mouth. 

facw > Ash78, voting early and often 03/13/2020 at 10:50

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There’s not actually any evidence the weather will slow things down. It’s true that other similar diseases do spread more readily in the winter, but we don’t really have a great understanding as to why, so we don’t know if this will behave similarly. And we are seeing transmission in warm countries (at the moment it’s not as bad, but that may just be luck, there are northern countries with similar spreads at this point). So the idea that it will die down over is a hope, rather than a sure thing (I certainly hope it’s true) .

facw > Textured Soy Protein 03/13/2020 at 10:52

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SXSW apparently doesn’t have any in surance that covers this though, leading to a big mess.

I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 10:53

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My brother’s school extended spring break by a week and is doing classes all online for the remainder of the semester. Undergrads who live in campus housing are moving out in waves to avoid large groups (and logistical issues). The university I work for cancelled classes for half a week and had undergraduates move out. Next week was the scheduled spring break, but the two weeks following spring break are to be held online only. I have plenty of friends in the music department here both faculty and student, and nobody really knows what the plan is for lessons, ensembles, choirs, etc.

The university my sister teaches at is cancelled too. So is my other sister’s high school. She’s mad that Prom and maybe graduation might be cancelled. 

Meanwhile I’m at my desk. Allegedly there’s a forthcoming email telling us to work from home if able, though...

Chariotoflove > Galileo Humpkins (aka MC Clap Yo Handz) 03/13/2020 at 10:56

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My school dads club forum was full of chat yesterday about what we’ll do for child care if all our kids are home from school much after spring break. 

Ash78, voting early and often > facw 03/13/2020 at 10:56

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I always thought the entire concept of illness seasonality was mostly due to a simple explanation: How much time people spend indoors in close proximity to each other. Biology of viruses and bacteria aside, that’s very plausible. So perennially warm places aren’t immune to disease, but places with colder climates would tend to have bigger seasonal spikes.

functionoverfashion > jimz 03/13/2020 at 10:56

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You know what they say, an ounce of prevention is hard and we’re lazy so you can keep your pound of cure I won’t need it ‘cause this is ‘MURICA

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 10:57

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3point8isgreat > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 10:58

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Oof that sounds rough. I know it’s hard for these organizations to keep going in general. And that renting out the concert halls for performances isn’t exactly cheap for them.

We’ve got a piano soloist this weekend that I’m not sure how they’d reschedule, and I think our concertmaster lives in Chicago and has to fly into town the week of concerts every time.

vondon302 > shop-teacher 03/13/2020 at 10:58

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My wife’s school district is so unprepared for this it’s not even funny.

shop-teacher > vondon302 03/13/2020 at 11:00

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It’s pretty clear that everybody at the district level has been running around like chickens with their heads cut off the last 3 or 4 days.

AestheticsInMotion > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 11:00

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Guess I'll just enjoy the (further) reduced traffic while I wait for total lockdown to go into effect 

facw > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 11:01

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The local schools here have shut down starting today, and will be closed until the 30th (we’ll see what happens then).

Galileo Humpkins (aka MC Clap Yo Handz) > Chariotoflove 03/13/2020 at 11:05

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Any worthwhile ideas, suggestions? You know, aside from making a case to the employer that they need to be home as well (if applicable).

camarov6rs > AestheticsInMotion 03/13/2020 at 11:08

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Heard on the radio that the legislature here in WA pass a bill that includes provisions for high school seniors to waive certain parts of their requirements to graduate on time. No details but it is interesting

vondon302 > shop-teacher 03/13/2020 at 11:09

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Same here. I pity the poor tech people. 

camarov6rs > jimz 03/13/2020 at 11:11

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Some of it is direction from the Top that we should continue as normal as possible to reduce the economic impact. So yes we are idiots at times.

TheRealBicycleBuck > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 11:12

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You got me thinking about wind instruments and how far the breath/moisture/contaminants might travel as the instrument is played. I question the six-foot spacing recommendation as being a safe distance. In my microbiology class, we studied airborne transmission with bacterial colonies on agar plates and bacteriophage suspended in liquid and sprayed into one of the air vents in the lab. Even p lates uncovered for less than 10 seconds at the back of the room (at least 20 feet away) were infected with the bacteriophage.

Imagine someone playing a trumpet or even worse, a flute, right behind you. Maybe the brass instruments would hinder the disbursal, but a floutist would be blowing their flora everywhere. 

Chariotoflove > Galileo Humpkins (aka MC Clap Yo Handz) 03/13/2020 at 11:14

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WFH if the job is amenable. Take sick days for child care if it isn’t. I’m lucky in that my kid is 14, and also my wife works from home anyway. So we have options. Still, one of my favorite ways to get her out of the house and give Mommy some quiet time is to take my kid to work. It’s a way to do some bonding and when I was a kid gave me my first exposure to science as a job. 

DAWRX - The Herb Strikes Back > facw 03/13/2020 at 11:15

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https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/coronavirus-and-seasonality-what-we-know-and-dont-know

Really good article on how we really don’t know how the weather will interplay with the virus, but its likely to keep spreading.

As I discussed in a 2018 post, there’s a substantial body of research showing that influenza tends to peak in the cold season and wane in the summer across midlatitudes. The key meteorological factor isn’t the heat – it’s the humidity. At higher humidity, the virus appears to be less stable, and the small virus-bearing droplets sent into the air by a cough seem more likely to attract water vapor and fall out of the air before infecting someone else. There’s also evidence that the flu takes hold in the upper respiratory tract more readily during dry weather.

^quote from the article. Literally the only time I’ve felt like living on the gulf coast is beneficial...lol

DAWRX - The Herb Strikes Back > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 11:18

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These are tough decisions to make, but I don’t think anyone wants an uncontrollable infection to rip through the population.

Chariotoflove > Ash78, voting early and often 03/13/2020 at 11:18

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Re hysteria: got this from my PhD student, a supposedly trained health care professional.

This guy works mostly in isolation anyway. This is the stuff I get impatient with. 

WRXforScience > shop-teacher 03/13/2020 at 11:25

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I’m on Spring Break here in Texas, there’s only a couple of Admins who didn’t leave on vacation and there are no plans at all. Monday is an in-service day and I have a feeling that the previously scheduled program will be interrupted.  

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > Ash78, voting early and often 03/13/2020 at 11:57

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Personally don’t get the hysteria bit. I’m pretty much doing what you said and following directions from my employer and local authorities. On top of that I think the cancellations of big events, school closures, etc. makes sense. We should be doing these things before things get too out of hand – given that this is the point.

Also would help a ton more if the plan to get test kits out was formulated WAY earlier and not botched so badly, even within the last week. If we had done that perhaps we’d have been able to test more broadly, start preventing spread much much earlier, and today we’d also have a much better count of the infections (which would also likely help bring the actual mortality rate down), and as a result the restrictions might not have had to be so drastic.

But the shitty data available (plus the knowledge that a TON of people showing symptoms are not being tested currently) is what we have now, and it would be irresponsible to not take it in to consideration, as incomplete as it may be, in the decision making process of how to react to this.

Also I seriously doubt Alabama actually has no cases at this point - much more likely that, like in most places, very little testing if any has been done to have detected them.

Ash78, voting early and often > ZHP Sparky, the 5th 03/13/2020 at 12:02

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Also I seriously doubt Alabama actually has no cases at this point- much more likely that, like in most places, very little testing if any has been done to have detected them.

Birmingham has a very large medical community, including a pretty substantial amount of Chinese- and Korean-American students/researchers/residents/professors. The odds that Covid hasn’t arrived here in some fashion (through travel, conferences, etc) is virtually nil.

As a data guy, the lack of a “good denominator” (random or widespread testing) bothers me, too. We’re biasing almost every sample as far as the death rate. But I’m also grateful that maybe that creates some fear to incentivize some action. Hopefully not too late.

DC3 LS, Fuck Hyundai, now and forever > AestheticsInMotion 03/13/2020 at 12:06

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What, you’ve been having reduced traffic? I wish we had that in San Antonio, but I guess everyone got the hysteria out of their system when there was the artificial gas shortage.

fintail > AestheticsInMotion 03/13/2020 at 12:23

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I heard this morning that 9am traffic volumes were the same as normal day 4-5am traffic volumes.

fintail > AestheticsInMotion 03/13/2020 at 12:23

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I heard this morning that 9am traffic volumes were the same as normal day 4-5am traffic volumes.

Jason Spears > ttyymmnn 03/13/2020 at 12:25

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This. This is exactly why we have the rate of spread that’s been seen so far. Quarantine after positive test results is too little, too late. Everyone in a population area needs to self-quarantine as soon as there’s a local case, if this is going to be slowed down. That’s not going to happen.

fintail > Ash78, voting early and often 03/13/2020 at 12:28

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I’d have imagined assumptions about people not taking preventative action would be more accurate in areas such as Alabama where a greater than average amount of the population are among the slavishly devoted base, and likely still think this is all a “hoax” and not take action just to win over the libs or something . Once again, the people that rational souls need to be protected from the most.

I’ll believe the weather bit when I see it. I’ll also wager the amount that I’ve lost on the market in the past ~2 weeks that there are cases in AL as well.

The hysteria is awful in terms of new shopping habits , it’s as if the main impacts of the virus are water not flowing from taps, and explosive diarrhea .

Jason Spears > Chariotoflove 03/13/2020 at 12:29

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To be fair, it’s people who aren’t showing symptoms who are spreading it. It’s not hysterical to think self-quarantine is helpful if you’re among a population that has seen at least one case.

Ash78, voting early and often > fintail 03/13/2020 at 12:34

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We definitely have cases, just not reported yet. I think it’s more about population density and direct overseas travel. Our largest metro is about 1.2 million people with no direct flights to Asia or Europe. Most other people live in metros of 500k or less, which certainly decentralizes the infection sources a bit. Same deal with Montana, Idaho, etc.

I don’t know anyone who isn’t taking it seriously. All of our institutions are sending out preemptive warnings just to be sure nobody is treating this like a common cold.

AestheticsInMotion > DC3 LS, Fuck Hyundai, now and forever 03/13/2020 at 12:37

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Google, Microsoft, Facebook, and all the other major tech companies have shut down all in-person operations. That’s a massive chunk of commuters. And it’s not just the tech industry either. Restaurants are closing left and right, indefinitely. 

AestheticsInMotion > fintail 03/13/2020 at 12:39

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I believe it. Last night, driving at 9:30pm, I was thinking traffic volume felt like 3:00am.

I drove from Kirkland to Everett today, left at 9am. Arrived in downtown Everett in like 23 minutes.

fintail > AestheticsInMotion 03/13/2020 at 12:54

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Sounds right.  I live on a relatively busy street, and volumes have to be halved or less.  There are times in the afternoon where I could get on hands and knees and crawl across without much risk.  It’s like 8pm on a Sunday at 4pm on a Thursday.

fintail > Ash78, voting early and often 03/13/2020 at 12:57

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That definitely is a factor. Less direct frequent contact with areas linked to the virus means a slower spread. But eventually, it will be there in large numbers, too.

I have no doubt most authorities are taking it seriously, but some individuals, I am not optimistic.

Chariotoflove > Jason Spears 03/13/2020 at 13:00

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You have to be rational about it though, not panicked.

ttyymmnn > TheRealBicycleBuck 03/13/2020 at 13:03

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I’d be interested in speaking more about this off the grid. Can you shoot me an email at my name @ gmail?

Ash78, voting early and often > fintail 03/13/2020 at 13:10

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First case just confirmed about 10 minutes ago. And we’re off to the races.

Our church just canceled services. Just waiting for the schools to throw in the towel, too.

Our biggest concern now (among the petty concerns) is leaving in about a week to travel out of state via car . The schools are already putting some restrictions on interstate travel for band/sports events, but it wouldn’t shock me if they did it for individuals, too. Unenforceable and pretty illogical, but you never know.

DC3 LS, Fuck Hyundai, now and forever > AestheticsInMotion 03/13/2020 at 13:11

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I also forgot y’all had it much worse up there. Here in SA I think the only cases we’ve had were some people who returned abroad who are quarantined on an Air Force base right now.

fintail > Ash78, voting early and often 03/13/2020 at 13:16

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Good luck!

Many things are shut down here for the next 3 weeks or so at least, I suspect you’ll be in it too. 31 deaths so far in WA, it’ll be interesting and probably depressing to see charts regarding spread and casualties.

CalzoneGolem > wafflesnfalafel 03/13/2020 at 13:34

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To be clear I’m not saying it’s bad.

wafflesnfalafel > CalzoneGolem 03/13/2020 at 15:03

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completely understand, still it’s a “challenge”, (read as a PITA...)

nafsucof > dtg11 - is probably on an adventure with Clifford 03/13/2020 at 23:14

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And that’s how these spread  to weak and elderly hurting loved ones...

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > DAWRX - The Herb Strikes Back 03/13/2020 at 23:32

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What really boggles is the UK. They have a shit load of known cases, with estimated thousands more ( 5-10) and then boris claims the peak is still 14 weeks away. which is nuts as if china was mid Nov, to end of jan. that is only @ 10 weeks.

Stef Schrader > 3point8isgreat 03/16/2020 at 05:07

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Yeeeeeah. I had a lil’ scare today from a friend who plays in an orchestra here. One of his orchestra-mates was exposed to someone with the virus, so he let us all know that he was doing the 14-day self-quarantine thing just to be safe.

Orchestra practice was Tuesday. Friend printed a form out for me and swung by with coffee Wednesday. OOP.

I think I’m far enough removed to be an extremely low risk, so yeah! Just gonna see how his self-quarantine run goes and lay lower than usual , I guess.

TheRealBicycleBuck > Stef Schrader 03/16/2020 at 06:59

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This is rapidly turning into a giant game of six degrees of Kevin Bacon. Except it’s six degrees of Coronavirus and everyone is playing, not just Hollywood celebrities. 

Stef Schrader > TheRealBicycleBuck 03/16/2020 at 12:51

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Yup.